I think there’s a bit of an “ugh field” around activism for some EA’s, especially the rationalist types in EA. At least, that’s my experience.
My first instinct, when I think of activism, is to think about people who:
- Have incorrect, often extreme beliefs or ideologies. - Are aggressively partisan. - Are more performative than effective with their actions.
This definitely does not describe all activists, but it does describe some activists, and may even describe the median activist. That said, this shouldn’t be a reason for us to discard this idea immediately out of hand—after all, how good is the median charity? Not that great compared to what EA’s actually do.
Perhaps there’s a mass-movement issue here though—activism tends to be best with a large groundswell of numbers. If you have a hundred thousand AI safety activists, you’re simply not going to have a hundred thousand people with a nuanced and deep understanding of the theory of change behind AI safety activism. You’re going to have a few hundred of those, and ninety nine thousand people who think AI is bad for Reason X, and that’s the extent of their thinking, and X varies wildly in quality.
Thus, the question is—would such a movement be useful? For such a movement to be useful, it would need to be effective at changing policy, and it would need to be aimed at the correct places. Even if the former is true, I find myself skeptical that the latter would occur, since even AI policy experts are not yet sure where to aim their own efforts, let alone how to communicate where to aim so well that a hundred thousand casually-engaged people can point in the same useful direction.
Great points thanks so much, agree with almost all of it!
We’ve obviously had different experience of activists! I have a lot of activist friends, and my first instincts when I think of activists are people who
1. Understand the issue they are campaigning for extremely well, without 2. Have a clear focus and goal that they want to achieve 2. Are beholden to their ideology yes but not to any political party because they know political tides change and becoming partisan won’t help their cause
Although I definitely know a few who fit your instincts pretty well ;)
That’s a really good point about the AI policy experts not being sure where to aim their efforts, so how would activists know where to aim theirs? Effective traditional activism needs clear targets and outcomes. A couple of points on the slightly more positive end supporting activism.
At this early stage we are at where very few people are even aware of the potential of AI risk, could raising public awareness be a legitimate purpose to actvism? Obviously when most people are aware and on board with the risk, then you need the effectiveness at changing policy you discussed.
AI activists might be more likely to be EA aligned, so optimistically more likely to be in that small percentage of more focused and successful activists?
With respect to Point 2, I think that EA is not large enough that a large AI activist movement would be comprised mostly of EA aligned people. EA is difficult and demanding—I don’t think you’re likely to get a “One Million EA” march anytime soon. I agree that AI activists who are EA aligned are more likely to be in the set of focused, successful activists (Like many of your friends!) but I think you’ll end up with either:
- A small group of focused, dedicated activists who may or may not be largely EA aligned - A large group of unfocused-by-default, relatively casual activists, most of whom will not be EA aligned
If either of those two would be effective at achieving goals, then I think that makes AI risk activism a good idea. If you need a large group of focused, dedicated activists—I don’t think we’re going to get that.
As for Point 1, it’s certainly possible—especially if having a large group of relatively unfocused people would be useful. I have no idea if this is true, so I have no idea if raising awareness is an impactful idea at this point. (Also, there are those that have made the point that raising AI risk awareness tends to make people more likely to race for AGI, not less—see OpenAI)
I think there’s a bit of an “ugh field” around activism for some EA’s, especially the rationalist types in EA. At least, that’s my experience.
My first instinct, when I think of activism, is to think about people who:
- Have incorrect, often extreme beliefs or ideologies.
- Are aggressively partisan.
- Are more performative than effective with their actions.
This definitely does not describe all activists, but it does describe some activists, and may even describe the median activist. That said, this shouldn’t be a reason for us to discard this idea immediately out of hand—after all, how good is the median charity? Not that great compared to what EA’s actually do.
Perhaps there’s a mass-movement issue here though—activism tends to be best with a large groundswell of numbers. If you have a hundred thousand AI safety activists, you’re simply not going to have a hundred thousand people with a nuanced and deep understanding of the theory of change behind AI safety activism. You’re going to have a few hundred of those, and ninety nine thousand people who think AI is bad for Reason X, and that’s the extent of their thinking, and X varies wildly in quality.
Thus, the question is—would such a movement be useful? For such a movement to be useful, it would need to be effective at changing policy, and it would need to be aimed at the correct places. Even if the former is true, I find myself skeptical that the latter would occur, since even AI policy experts are not yet sure where to aim their own efforts, let alone how to communicate where to aim so well that a hundred thousand casually-engaged people can point in the same useful direction.
Great points thanks so much, agree with almost all of it!
We’ve obviously had different experience of activists! I have a lot of activist friends, and my first instincts when I think of activists are people who
1. Understand the issue they are campaigning for extremely well, without
2. Have a clear focus and goal that they want to achieve
2. Are beholden to their ideology yes but not to any political party because they know political tides change and becoming partisan won’t help their cause
Although I definitely know a few who fit your instincts pretty well ;)
That’s a really good point about the AI policy experts not being sure where to aim their efforts, so how would activists know where to aim theirs? Effective traditional activism needs clear targets and outcomes. A couple of points on the slightly more positive end supporting activism.
At this early stage we are at where very few people are even aware of the potential of AI risk, could raising public awareness be a legitimate purpose to actvism? Obviously when most people are aware and on board with the risk, then you need the effectiveness at changing policy you discussed.
AI activists might be more likely to be EA aligned, so optimistically more likely to be in that small percentage of more focused and successful activists?
With respect to Point 2, I think that EA is not large enough that a large AI activist movement would be comprised mostly of EA aligned people. EA is difficult and demanding—I don’t think you’re likely to get a “One Million EA” march anytime soon. I agree that AI activists who are EA aligned are more likely to be in the set of focused, successful activists (Like many of your friends!) but I think you’ll end up with either:
- A small group of focused, dedicated activists who may or may not be largely EA aligned
- A large group of unfocused-by-default, relatively casual activists, most of whom will not be EA aligned
If either of those two would be effective at achieving goals, then I think that makes AI risk activism a good idea. If you need a large group of focused, dedicated activists—I don’t think we’re going to get that.
As for Point 1, it’s certainly possible—especially if having a large group of relatively unfocused people would be useful. I have no idea if this is true, so I have no idea if raising awareness is an impactful idea at this point. (Also, there are those that have made the point that raising AI risk awareness tends to make people more likely to race for AGI, not less—see OpenAI)