I agree that lots of these considerations are important. On 2) especially, I agree that being epistemically modest doesn’t make things easy because choosing the right experts is a non-trivial task. One example of this is using AI researchers as the correct expert group on AGI timelines, which I have myself done in the past. AI researchers have shown themselves to be good at producing AI research, not at forecasting long-term AI trends, so it’s really unclear that this is the right way to be modest in this case.
On 4 also—I agree. I think coming to a sophisticated view will often involve deferring to some experts on specific sub-questions using different groups of experts. Like maybe you defer to climate science on what will happen to the climate, philosophers on how to think about future costs, economists on the best way forward, etc. Identifying the correct expert groups is not always straightforward.
Thanks for the reply! One thing you and AGB reminded me of that my original comment elided over is that some of these personal and “practical” considerations apply in both directions. For example for #4 there are many/most cases where understanding expert consensus is easier rather than harder than coming up with your own judgment.
It’d perhaps be interesting if people produced a list of the most important/common practical considerations in either direction, though ofc much of that will be specific to the individual/subject matter/specific situation.
I agree that lots of these considerations are important. On 2) especially, I agree that being epistemically modest doesn’t make things easy because choosing the right experts is a non-trivial task. One example of this is using AI researchers as the correct expert group on AGI timelines, which I have myself done in the past. AI researchers have shown themselves to be good at producing AI research, not at forecasting long-term AI trends, so it’s really unclear that this is the right way to be modest in this case.
On 4 also—I agree. I think coming to a sophisticated view will often involve deferring to some experts on specific sub-questions using different groups of experts. Like maybe you defer to climate science on what will happen to the climate, philosophers on how to think about future costs, economists on the best way forward, etc. Identifying the correct expert groups is not always straightforward.
Thanks for the reply! One thing you and AGB reminded me of that my original comment elided over is that some of these personal and “practical” considerations apply in both directions. For example for #4 there are many/most cases where understanding expert consensus is easier rather than harder than coming up with your own judgment.
It’d perhaps be interesting if people produced a list of the most important/common practical considerations in either direction, though ofc much of that will be specific to the individual/subject matter/specific situation.