Was your model informed by @Arepo ’s similar models? I believe he was considering rerunning the time of perils because of a catastrophe before AGI. Either way, catastrophic risk becomes much more important to the long-run future than with a simple analysis.
Thanks for the shout-out :) If you mentally replace the ‘multiplanetary’ state with ‘post-AGI’ in this calculator, I do think it models the set of concerns Will’s talking about here pretty well.
Was your model informed by @Arepo ’s similar models? I believe he was considering rerunning the time of perils because of a catastrophe before AGI. Either way, catastrophic risk becomes much more important to the long-run future than with a simple analysis.
Thanks for the shout-out :) If you mentally replace the ‘multiplanetary’ state with ‘post-AGI’ in this calculator, I do think it models the set of concerns Will’s talking about here pretty well.