Thanks. I agree that we should have non-infinitesimal credence that physics is wrong, but to change the conclusion, we would need to “insist that modern physics is incorrect in very specific ways.” Given the strength of evidence about the existence of many of the limits, regardless of their actual form or value, that is a higher bar. I also advise looking closely at the discussion of the “Pessimistic Meta-induction,” and why we think that it’s reasonable to be at least incredibly confident that these limits exist.
That doesn’t guarantee their existence. But after accepting a non-zero credence in those specific types of incorrect theory, we need to pin our hopes for infinite value on those specific occurrences; we would need to maximize expected value conditional on that very small probability in order to find infinite value, and neglect the very large but finite value we are nearly certain exists in the physical universe. That seems difficult to me.
Thanks. I agree that we should have non-infinitesimal credence that physics is wrong, but to change the conclusion, we would need to “insist that modern physics is incorrect in very specific ways.” Given the strength of evidence about the existence of many of the limits, regardless of their actual form or value, that is a higher bar. I also advise looking closely at the discussion of the “Pessimistic Meta-induction,” and why we think that it’s reasonable to be at least incredibly confident that these limits exist.
That doesn’t guarantee their existence. But after accepting a non-zero credence in those specific types of incorrect theory, we need to pin our hopes for infinite value on those specific occurrences; we would need to maximize expected value conditional on that very small probability in order to find infinite value, and neglect the very large but finite value we are nearly certain exists in the physical universe. That seems difficult to me.