By “0.1% to 1% chance of an extinction-level war”, do you mean something like “0.1% to 1% chance of extinction as a fairly direct result of war”? Or something like “0.1% to 1% chance of a war severe enough that it could plausibly fairly directly lead to extinction” (which might imply only a 0.1-1% * 1-50% chance of extinction due to this, depending on how strong the “plausibly” is)? I suggest rephrasing to disambiguate between different interpretations like that.
I’m confused by why that forecast is that much lower than the forecast “I think there’s about a 1% to 2% chance of an existential disaster due to Great Power war before 2100”. Is this because you think there’s a 1-1.9% chance of non-extinction existential catastrophe due to war? Or is that first forecast only meant to be extinction during the war while the second include extinction later on due to tech development that occurred during the war (or something)? Or something else?
These things might be clarified later (haven’t finished reading yet) but they seem worth clarifying in the summary anyway.
Thanks for this post! Seems like valuable work.
A couple clarity questions/comments:
By “0.1% to 1% chance of an extinction-level war”, do you mean something like “0.1% to 1% chance of extinction as a fairly direct result of war”? Or something like “0.1% to 1% chance of a war severe enough that it could plausibly fairly directly lead to extinction” (which might imply only a 0.1-1% * 1-50% chance of extinction due to this, depending on how strong the “plausibly” is)? I suggest rephrasing to disambiguate between different interpretations like that.
I’m confused by why that forecast is that much lower than the forecast “I think there’s about a 1% to 2% chance of an existential disaster due to Great Power war before 2100”. Is this because you think there’s a 1-1.9% chance of non-extinction existential catastrophe due to war? Or is that first forecast only meant to be extinction during the war while the second include extinction later on due to tech development that occurred during the war (or something)? Or something else?
These things might be clarified later (haven’t finished reading yet) but they seem worth clarifying in the summary anyway.
(I ask in part because I intend to add your estimates to my database of existential risk estimates (or similar).)