By â0.1% to 1% chance of an extinction-level warâ, do you mean something like â0.1% to 1% chance of extinction as a fairly direct result of warâ? Or something like â0.1% to 1% chance of a war severe enough that it could plausibly fairly directly lead to extinctionâ (which might imply only a 0.1-1% * 1-50% chance of extinction due to this, depending on how strong the âplausiblyâ is)? I suggest rephrasing to disambiguate between different interpretations like that.
Iâm confused by why that forecast is that much lower than the forecast âI think thereâs about a 1% to 2% chance of an existential disaster due to Great Power war before 2100â. Is this because you think thereâs a 1-1.9% chance of non-extinction existential catastrophe due to war? Or is that first forecast only meant to be extinction during the war while the second include extinction later on due to tech development that occurred during the war (or something)? Or something else?
These things might be clarified later (havenât finished reading yet) but they seem worth clarifying in the summary anyway.
Thanks for this post! Seems like valuable work.
A couple clarity questions/âcomments:
By â0.1% to 1% chance of an extinction-level warâ, do you mean something like â0.1% to 1% chance of extinction as a fairly direct result of warâ? Or something like â0.1% to 1% chance of a war severe enough that it could plausibly fairly directly lead to extinctionâ (which might imply only a 0.1-1% * 1-50% chance of extinction due to this, depending on how strong the âplausiblyâ is)? I suggest rephrasing to disambiguate between different interpretations like that.
Iâm confused by why that forecast is that much lower than the forecast âI think thereâs about a 1% to 2% chance of an existential disaster due to Great Power war before 2100â. Is this because you think thereâs a 1-1.9% chance of non-extinction existential catastrophe due to war? Or is that first forecast only meant to be extinction during the war while the second include extinction later on due to tech development that occurred during the war (or something)? Or something else?
These things might be clarified later (havenât finished reading yet) but they seem worth clarifying in the summary anyway.
(I ask in part because I intend to add your estimates to my database of existential risk estimates (or similar).)