I think it’s quite possible that OP has built quantitative models which estimate GCR, but that they haven’t published them (e.g. they use them internally).
I assume Open Philanthropy (OP) has built quantitative models which estimate GCR, but probably just simple ones, as I would expect a model like Tom’s to be published. There may be concerns about information hazards in the context of bio risk, but OP had an approach to quantify it while mitigate them:
A second, less risky approach is to abstract away most biological details and instead consider general ‘base rates’. The aim is to estimate the likelihood of a biological attack or accident using historical data and base rates of analogous scenarios, and of risk factors such as warfare or terrorism.
I think it’s quite possible that OP has built quantitative models which estimate GCR, but that they haven’t published them (e.g. they use them internally).
Hi Saul,
I assume Open Philanthropy (OP) has built quantitative models which estimate GCR, but probably just simple ones, as I would expect a model like Tom’s to be published. There may be concerns about information hazards in the context of bio risk, but OP had an approach to quantify it while mitigate them: