I think it’s important to distinguish between ‘surprise attack’ and ‘first strike’...
I’d guess that this is probably the main thing that explains the contrasts between the two quotes.
The US figures you mention might have thought that in that moment, the likelihood of a US first-strike was really low and that hence it would’ve been surprising for the USSR to start the detection project at that moment
I doubt that this is can help much in explaining the contrast, since the quote from Kit’s summary of The Dead Hand sounds like it applies across a large time period, rather than just at a smaller handful of key points. (Though of course, Kit’s summary may be very slightly misleading on certain nuanced points.)
Debending on who the key US figures mentioned in your summary are (unfortunately, I haven’t read The Dead Hand), it might also be that they just weren’t aware of the first strike plans of the US.
I also don’t think this is likely to be a major part of the explanation, as I think it was pretty well known among US military and political leaders that the US had first strike plans. I’m not sure of this, though.
Good points, thanks!
I’d guess that this is probably the main thing that explains the contrasts between the two quotes.
I doubt that this is can help much in explaining the contrast, since the quote from Kit’s summary of The Dead Hand sounds like it applies across a large time period, rather than just at a smaller handful of key points. (Though of course, Kit’s summary may be very slightly misleading on certain nuanced points.)
I also don’t think this is likely to be a major part of the explanation, as I think it was pretty well known among US military and political leaders that the US had first strike plans. I’m not sure of this, though.