I am extremely sceptical that you can make an asteroid impact seem like a natural event. The trajectory of asteroids are being tracked, and if one of them drastically changed course after an enemy state’s deep space probe (whose launch cannot be hidden) were in the vicinity, the inference is clear.
In any case, the difficulty of weaponization far outstrips redirection. The energy (and hence payload) as well as the complexity of the supporting calculations needed to redirect an asteroid so it does not hit earth is magnitudes less than the payload and calculations needed to . Even if we were capable of the former (i.e. have deflection capabilities), we would not have the latter—and that’s not even getting into the risk of even marginal errors in calculations of these long orbits causing staggering different predictions of ground zero—you could easily end up striking yourself (or causing a tsunami that drowns your own coastal cities).
That’s not getting into the issue of the military value of such weapons—which by definition cannot deter, if meant to look accidental.
Fair enough! I probably wasn’t clear—what I had in mind was one country detecting an asteroid first, then deflecting it into Earth before any other country/​‘the global community’ detects it. Just recently we detected a 1.5 km near Earth object that has an orbit which intersects with Earth. The scenario I had in mind was that one country detects this (but probably a smaller one ~50 m) first, then deflects it.
We detect ~50 m asteroids as they make their final approach to Earth all the time, so detecting one first by chance could be a strategic advantage.
I am extremely sceptical that you can make an asteroid impact seem like a natural event. The trajectory of asteroids are being tracked, and if one of them drastically changed course after an enemy state’s deep space probe (whose launch cannot be hidden) were in the vicinity, the inference is clear.
In any case, the difficulty of weaponization far outstrips redirection. The energy (and hence payload) as well as the complexity of the supporting calculations needed to redirect an asteroid so it does not hit earth is magnitudes less than the payload and calculations needed to . Even if we were capable of the former (i.e. have deflection capabilities), we would not have the latter—and that’s not even getting into the risk of even marginal errors in calculations of these long orbits causing staggering different predictions of ground zero—you could easily end up striking yourself (or causing a tsunami that drowns your own coastal cities).
That’s not getting into the issue of the military value of such weapons—which by definition cannot deter, if meant to look accidental.
Fair enough! I probably wasn’t clear—what I had in mind was one country detecting an asteroid first, then deflecting it into Earth before any other country/​‘the global community’ detects it. Just recently we detected a 1.5 km near Earth object that has an orbit which intersects with Earth. The scenario I had in mind was that one country detects this (but probably a smaller one ~50 m) first, then deflects it.
We detect ~50 m asteroids as they make their final approach to Earth all the time, so detecting one first by chance could be a strategic advantage.
I take your other points, though.