Hi Finm! Your post was definitely a great starting point for me—CEARCH is working through various causes, and we’re relying heavily on Nuno’s big list (which linked to your post as an excellent primer on the issue).
On your two other points:
(a) I understand that Matheny’s analysis turns on (i) philosophical views on the view of the value of potential (as opposed to future but actual) human lives, and perhaps more controversially (ii) not implementing standard discounts. Not sure if I would go for (ii), but I do see people reasonably being far more bullish on the value of asteroid defence given (ii).
(b) In any case, I definitely agree that CEAs like this are likely to be overoptimistic, which is why CEARCH is unlikely to be spending more time on this cause. As our research methodology post (link) lays out—only if a cause’s estimated cost-effectiveness is at least one magnitude greater than a GiveWell top charity, will it pass on to the intermediate/deep rounds of research, with the idea being that research at the shallower level tends to overestimate a cause’s cost-effectiveness. So if a cause doesn’t appear effective early on, it’s probably not going to be a better-than-GiveWell bet (initial impressions notwithstanding), let alone a Cause X magnitudes more important than our current top causes.
Hi Finm! Your post was definitely a great starting point for me—CEARCH is working through various causes, and we’re relying heavily on Nuno’s big list (which linked to your post as an excellent primer on the issue).
On your two other points:
(a) I understand that Matheny’s analysis turns on (i) philosophical views on the view of the value of potential (as opposed to future but actual) human lives, and perhaps more controversially (ii) not implementing standard discounts. Not sure if I would go for (ii), but I do see people reasonably being far more bullish on the value of asteroid defence given (ii).
(b) In any case, I definitely agree that CEAs like this are likely to be overoptimistic, which is why CEARCH is unlikely to be spending more time on this cause. As our research methodology post (link) lays out—only if a cause’s estimated cost-effectiveness is at least one magnitude greater than a GiveWell top charity, will it pass on to the intermediate/deep rounds of research, with the idea being that research at the shallower level tends to overestimate a cause’s cost-effectiveness. So if a cause doesn’t appear effective early on, it’s probably not going to be a better-than-GiveWell bet (initial impressions notwithstanding), let alone a Cause X magnitudes more important than our current top causes.