Independent evaluations of cost-effectiveness of the type of work that ALLFED does can be found here:
CEARCH’s in-depth analysis of interventions for Resilience to Nuclear & Volcanic Winter. They argue that policy advocacy campaigns are the most promising intervention, around 30x the cost-effectiveness of a typical GiveWell-recommended charity.
Speedrun: Demonstrate the ability to rapidly scale food production in the case of nuclear winter by Marie Buhl from Rethink Priorities: “my (extremely rough) estimate that this project reduces x-risk with a cost-effectiveness of ~$260 million per 0.01% absolute reduction[1] (~70% confidence interval: 2.2 million to 2.7 billion). If this estimate were accurate, then this project would clear our median roughly estimated cost-effectiveness bar of $500M per basis-point of x-risk averted”.
Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations by Nuño Sempere: “I disagree strongly with ALLFED’s estimates (probability of cost overruns, impact of ALLFED’s work if deployed, etc.), however, I feel that the case for an organization working in this area is relatively solid.” (Note that this is a 3 year old analysis, when the funding situation and risk landscapes were different).
ALLFED has published peer-reviewed cost-effectiveness analyses estimating that this work is likely to be more cost-effective than GiveWell interventions for saving lives in the present generation, and potentially more cost-effective than artificial general intelligence safety for improving the long run future (resilient foods and resilience to loss of electricity/industry).
Independent evaluations of cost-effectiveness of the type of work that ALLFED does can be found here:
CEARCH’s in-depth analysis of interventions for Resilience to Nuclear & Volcanic Winter. They argue that policy advocacy campaigns are the most promising intervention, around 30x the cost-effectiveness of a typical GiveWell-recommended charity.
Unjournal’s 1st eval is up: Resilient foods paper This is an evaluation of the aforementioned peer-reviewed papers by subject-matter expert senior researchers.
Speedrun: Demonstrate the ability to rapidly scale food production in the case of nuclear winter by Marie Buhl from Rethink Priorities: “my (extremely rough) estimate that this project reduces x-risk with a cost-effectiveness of ~$260 million per 0.01% absolute reduction[1] (~70% confidence interval: 2.2 million to 2.7 billion). If this estimate were accurate, then this project would clear our median roughly estimated cost-effectiveness bar of $500M per basis-point of x-risk averted”.
Famine deaths due to the climatic effects of nuclear war by Vasco Grilo: “I guess the true cost-effectiveness is within the same order of magnitude of that of GiveWell’s top charities”
Shallow evaluations of longtermist organizations by Nuño Sempere: “I disagree strongly with ALLFED’s estimates (probability of cost overruns, impact of ALLFED’s work if deployed, etc.), however, I feel that the case for an organization working in this area is relatively solid.” (Note that this is a 3 year old analysis, when the funding situation and risk landscapes were different).