It’s interesting to note that it’s now two years later, and I don’t think the picture above has really changed.
So the measured marginal drift rate is ~0%.
On the previous estimate of 25% leaving after 6.5 years, that’s about 5% per year, which would have predicted 1.4 extra people leaving in two years.
Of course these are tiny samples, but I think our expectation should be that ‘drift’ rates decrease over time. My prior is that if someone stays involved from age 20 to age 30, then there’s a good chance they stay involved the rest of their career. I guess my best guess should be that they stay involved for another 10 years.
If I eyeball the group above, my guess is that this pattern also holds if we look back further i.e. there was more drift in the early years among people who were involved for less time.
One small comment on the original analysis is that in addition to how long someone has already been involved, I expect ‘degree of social & identity involvement’ to be a bigger predictor of staying involved than ‘claimed level of dedication’ e.g. I’d expect someone who works at an EA org is more likely to stay involved than someone who says they intend to donate 50% but doesn’t have any good friends in the community. It would be cool to try to do an analysis more based around that factor, and it might reveal a group with lower drop out rates. The above analysis with CEA is better on these grounds but could still be divided further.
That doesn’t seem right—since this comment was made, Holly’s gone from being EA London strategy director to not really identifying with EA, which is more like the 5% per year.
Since the comment was made, Rob Gledhill has returned to CEA as the CBG Programme Manager. (Not totally confident that they are the same person though)
This is really helpful, thanks.
It’s interesting to note that it’s now two years later, and I don’t think the picture above has really changed.
So the measured marginal drift rate is ~0%.
On the previous estimate of 25% leaving after 6.5 years, that’s about 5% per year, which would have predicted 1.4 extra people leaving in two years.
Of course these are tiny samples, but I think our expectation should be that ‘drift’ rates decrease over time. My prior is that if someone stays involved from age 20 to age 30, then there’s a good chance they stay involved the rest of their career. I guess my best guess should be that they stay involved for another 10 years.
If I eyeball the group above, my guess is that this pattern also holds if we look back further i.e. there was more drift in the early years among people who were involved for less time.
One small comment on the original analysis is that in addition to how long someone has already been involved, I expect ‘degree of social & identity involvement’ to be a bigger predictor of staying involved than ‘claimed level of dedication’ e.g. I’d expect someone who works at an EA org is more likely to stay involved than someone who says they intend to donate 50% but doesn’t have any good friends in the community. It would be cool to try to do an analysis more based around that factor, and it might reveal a group with lower drop out rates. The above analysis with CEA is better on these grounds but could still be divided further.
That doesn’t seem right—since this comment was made, Holly’s gone from being EA London strategy director to not really identifying with EA, which is more like the 5% per year.
Since the comment was made, Rob Gledhill has returned to CEA as the CBG Programme Manager. (Not totally confident that they are the same person though)
They are.