Sorry—my post is coming with the worldview/expectations that at some point, AI+software will be a major thing. I was flagging that in that view, software should become much better.
The question of “will AI+software” be important soon is a background assumption, but a distinct topic. If you are very skeptical, then my post wouldn’t be relevant to you.
Some quick points on that topic, however: 1. I think there’s a decent coalition of researchers and programmers who do believe that AI+software will be a major deal very soon (if not already). Companies are investing substantially into it (i.e. Anthropic, OpenAI, Microsoft, etc). 2. I’ve found AI programming tools to be a major help, and so have many other programmers I’ve spoken to. 3. I see the current tools as very experimental and new, still. Very much as a proof of concept. I expect it to take a while to ramp up their abilities / scale. So the fact that the economic impact so far is limited doesn’t surprise me. 4. I’m not very set on extremely short timelines. But I think that 10-30 years would still be fairly soon, and it’s much more likely that big changes will happen on this time frame.
Sorry—my post is coming with the worldview/expectations that at some point, AI+software will be a major thing. I was flagging that in that view, software should become much better.
The question of “will AI+software” be important soon is a background assumption, but a distinct topic. If you are very skeptical, then my post wouldn’t be relevant to you.
Some quick points on that topic, however:
1. I think there’s a decent coalition of researchers and programmers who do believe that AI+software will be a major deal very soon (if not already). Companies are investing substantially into it (i.e. Anthropic, OpenAI, Microsoft, etc).
2. I’ve found AI programming tools to be a major help, and so have many other programmers I’ve spoken to.
3. I see the current tools as very experimental and new, still. Very much as a proof of concept. I expect it to take a while to ramp up their abilities / scale. So the fact that the economic impact so far is limited doesn’t surprise me.
4. I’m not very set on extremely short timelines. But I think that 10-30 years would still be fairly soon, and it’s much more likely that big changes will happen on this time frame.