Occasionally I come across people who assume that “AI + judgemental forecasting” is a well-studies and funded area.
While I think this area is really high-potential (especially if done correctly), I think it’s quite small right now.
I know of two new startups in the space (one is FutureSearch, I heard of another on Twitter). Neither has a very serious public product out yet, both probably have fewer than 10 FTEs. Based on the rates of startup success, I’d guess both will fail or pivot.
Metaculus has done some public challenges for AI forecasting, but these are pretty small. A $~30k prize.
There are occasional research papers that come out in the area. But these typically don’t come with tools that the public can really use.
Overall, while I think this field is really neat, I think there are fairly few people actively working on it now, and I’d expect correspondingly limited results.
Occasionally I come across people who assume that “AI + judgemental forecasting” is a well-studies and funded area.
While I think this area is really high-potential (especially if done correctly), I think it’s quite small right now.
I know of two new startups in the space (one is FutureSearch, I heard of another on Twitter). Neither has a very serious public product out yet, both probably have fewer than 10 FTEs. Based on the rates of startup success, I’d guess both will fail or pivot.
Metaculus has done some public challenges for AI forecasting, but these are pretty small. A $~30k prize.
There are occasional research papers that come out in the area. But these typically don’t come with tools that the public can really use.
Overall, while I think this field is really neat, I think there are fairly few people actively working on it now, and I’d expect correspondingly limited results.