On AI safety, I think it’s fairly likely (40%?) that the risk of x-risk (upon a lot of reflection) in the next 20 years is less than 20%, and that the entirety of the EA scene might be reducing it to say 15%.
This means that the entirety of the EA AI safety scene would help the EV of the world by ~5%.
On one hand, this is a whole lot. But on the other, I’m nervous that it’s not ambitious enough, for what could be one of the most [combination of well-resourced, well-meaning, and analytical/empirical] groups of our generation.
One thing I like about epistemic interventions is that the upper-bounds could be higher.
(There are some AI interventions that are more ambitious, but many do seem to be mainly about reducing x-risk by less than an order of magnitude, not increasing the steady-state potential outcome)
I’d also note here that an EV gain of 5% might not be particularly ambitious. It could well be the case that many different groups can do this—so it’s easier than it might seem if you think goodness is additive instead of multiplicative.
On AI safety, I think it’s fairly likely (40%?) that the risk of x-risk (upon a lot of reflection) in the next 20 years is less than 20%, and that the entirety of the EA scene might be reducing it to say 15%.
This means that the entirety of the EA AI safety scene would help the EV of the world by ~5%.
On one hand, this is a whole lot. But on the other, I’m nervous that it’s not ambitious enough, for what could be one of the most [combination of well-resourced, well-meaning, and analytical/empirical] groups of our generation.
One thing I like about epistemic interventions is that the upper-bounds could be higher.
(There are some AI interventions that are more ambitious, but many do seem to be mainly about reducing x-risk by less than an order of magnitude, not increasing the steady-state potential outcome)
I’d also note here that an EV gain of 5% might not be particularly ambitious. It could well be the case that many different groups can do this—so it’s easier than it might seem if you think goodness is additive instead of multiplicative.