I am not so aware of the assumption you make up front, and would agree with you that anyone making such an assumption is being naive. Not least because humans on average (and even supers under many conditions) are objectively inaccurate at forecasting—even if relatively good given we don’t have anything better yet.
I think the more interesting and important when it comes to AI forecasting and claiming they are “good”, is to look at the reasoning process that they undertaken to do that. How are they forming reference classes, how are they integrating specific information, how are they updating their posterior to form an accurate inference and likelihood of the event occurring? Right now, they can sort of do (1), but from my experience don’t do well at all at integration, updating, and making a probabilistic judgment. In fairness, humans often don’t either. But we do it more consistently than current AI.
For your post, this suggests to me that AI could be used to help base rate/reference class creation, and maybe loosely support integration.
I am not so aware of the assumption you make up front, and would agree with you that anyone making such an assumption is being naive. Not least because humans on average (and even supers under many conditions) are objectively inaccurate at forecasting—even if relatively good given we don’t have anything better yet.
I think the more interesting and important when it comes to AI forecasting and claiming they are “good”, is to look at the reasoning process that they undertaken to do that. How are they forming reference classes, how are they integrating specific information, how are they updating their posterior to form an accurate inference and likelihood of the event occurring? Right now, they can sort of do (1), but from my experience don’t do well at all at integration, updating, and making a probabilistic judgment. In fairness, humans often don’t either. But we do it more consistently than current AI.
For your post, this suggests to me that AI could be used to help base rate/reference class creation, and maybe loosely support integration.