I agree the direct/​nearterm extinction risk posed by nuclear war alone would be quite low (maybe of the order of 10^-6 in the next 100 years), but I wonder whether it could still meaningfully decrease the value of the longterm future if thousands of nukes are detonated. Models S and E of Denkenberger 2022 consider a full scale nuclear war would decrease such value by 24 % and 7 %. I think these are too high, but guess a nuclear war involving thousands of nukes might still increase indirect/​longterm extinction risk to a significant extent. So I would say they are not directly comparable to GiveWell’s top charities.
Thanks for the reply!
I agree the direct/​nearterm extinction risk posed by nuclear war alone would be quite low (maybe of the order of 10^-6 in the next 100 years), but I wonder whether it could still meaningfully decrease the value of the longterm future if thousands of nukes are detonated. Models S and E of Denkenberger 2022 consider a full scale nuclear war would decrease such value by 24 % and 7 %. I think these are too high, but guess a nuclear war involving thousands of nukes might still increase indirect/​longterm extinction risk to a significant extent. So I would say they are not directly comparable to GiveWell’s top charities.
Maybe you think they are comparable given the low likelihood of civilisation collapse, and the flow-through effects of saving lives (which might include decreasing longterm extinction risk)?