Alone and directly (not as a contributing factor to something else later), enough below 0.1% that I evaluate nuclear interventions based mainly on their casualties and disruption, not extinction. I would (and have) support them in the same kind of metric as GiveWell, not in extinction risk.
In the event of all-out WMD war (including with rogue AGI as belligerent) that leads to extinction nukes could be a contributing factor combined with bioweapons and AI (strategic WMD war raises the likelihoods of multiple WMDs being used together).
I agree the direct/nearterm extinction risk posed by nuclear war alone would be quite low (maybe of the order of 10^-6 in the next 100 years), but I wonder whether it could still meaningfully decrease the value of the longterm future if thousands of nukes are detonated. Models S and E of Denkenberger 2022 consider a full scale nuclear war would decrease such value by 24 % and 7 %. I think these are too high, but guess a nuclear war involving thousands of nukes might still increase indirect/longterm extinction risk to a significant extent. So I would say they are not directly comparable to GiveWell’s top charities.
Alone and directly (not as a contributing factor to something else later), enough below 0.1% that I evaluate nuclear interventions based mainly on their casualties and disruption, not extinction. I would (and have) support them in the same kind of metric as GiveWell, not in extinction risk.
In the event of all-out WMD war (including with rogue AGI as belligerent) that leads to extinction nukes could be a contributing factor combined with bioweapons and AI (strategic WMD war raises the likelihoods of multiple WMDs being used together).
Thanks for the reply!
I agree the direct/nearterm extinction risk posed by nuclear war alone would be quite low (maybe of the order of 10^-6 in the next 100 years), but I wonder whether it could still meaningfully decrease the value of the longterm future if thousands of nukes are detonated. Models S and E of Denkenberger 2022 consider a full scale nuclear war would decrease such value by 24 % and 7 %. I think these are too high, but guess a nuclear war involving thousands of nukes might still increase indirect/longterm extinction risk to a significant extent. So I would say they are not directly comparable to GiveWell’s top charities.
Maybe you think they are comparable given the low likelihood of civilisation collapse, and the flow-through effects of saving lives (which might include decreasing longterm extinction risk)?