Why stop at +400? Doesn’t the ev of the free bet continue to rise as the odds get longer? Is it just because the longer odds run into the bet caps?
Edit: also for the free bets, wouldn’t you want to make many small ones to lower the variance?
Another factor is that the sportsbook’s house edge (vig) loses you more EV for longer bets, since it’s larger relative to your chance of winning when that chance is small. Around +600 (very roughly) is the sweet spot for EV.
Yes, it’s good to split your free bets to lower variance on FanDuel and Barstool who allow it. However, the DraftKings and Caesars bonus bets can’t be split. BetMGM splits your bonus into 5 equal-size bets that can’t be split further.
Hmm where did you hear that sportsbooks take a higher vig on longer odds bets? I knew this about one-way bets, like the winner of a golf tournament, because you can’t bet on the event not happening so there isn’t an easy way for the lay-bettor to see how much they’re getting ripped off. I’ve seen plenty of arbitrage opportunities on oddsjam for long odds bets—just flagging in case anyone doing handicapping or +EV betting without promos sees this.
Also, I could be wrong so please let me know if there’s something I’m missing!
This is just empirical, that the vig is roughly 4-5% for long and short bets alike. But the math works out that for a fixed vig, long bets lose more EV because the vig is larger as a fraction as your chance of winning,
Great question. A mix of risk tolerance (for most people) and tax liability (especially for the $5,000 best). Sure you could make a +2000 odds bet, but then you’d have to pay taxes on a $100,000 windfall, and that dominates the marginal gains in bet efficiency between converting a free bet at 80% of the principal (+400 odds) to 95% of the principal (+2000 odds).
Also, sites may not let you get a full $5000 credit on a +2000 odds bet. And oddsjam may not have much data on which +2000 longshots are good value relative to other books bc so few sites would offer bets on that event (or parlay) that you could compare apples to apples
Oh and you definitely would want to make a bunch of small bets. You just can’t do that the way the promo is structured on any place except barstool and betmgm. Takes a bit more time to hunt around for a bunch of bets, so up to you
Why stop at +400? Doesn’t the ev of the free bet continue to rise as the odds get longer? Is it just because the longer odds run into the bet caps? Edit: also for the free bets, wouldn’t you want to make many small ones to lower the variance?
Another factor is that the sportsbook’s house edge (vig) loses you more EV for longer bets, since it’s larger relative to your chance of winning when that chance is small. Around +600 (very roughly) is the sweet spot for EV.
Yes, it’s good to split your free bets to lower variance on FanDuel and Barstool who allow it. However, the DraftKings and Caesars bonus bets can’t be split. BetMGM splits your bonus into 5 equal-size bets that can’t be split further.
Hmm where did you hear that sportsbooks take a higher vig on longer odds bets? I knew this about one-way bets, like the winner of a golf tournament, because you can’t bet on the event not happening so there isn’t an easy way for the lay-bettor to see how much they’re getting ripped off. I’ve seen plenty of arbitrage opportunities on oddsjam for long odds bets—just flagging in case anyone doing handicapping or +EV betting without promos sees this.
Also, I could be wrong so please let me know if there’s something I’m missing!
This is just empirical, that the vig is roughly 4-5% for long and short bets alike. But the math works out that for a fixed vig, long bets lose more EV because the vig is larger as a fraction as your chance of winning,
Great question. A mix of risk tolerance (for most people) and tax liability (especially for the $5,000 best). Sure you could make a +2000 odds bet, but then you’d have to pay taxes on a $100,000 windfall, and that dominates the marginal gains in bet efficiency between converting a free bet at 80% of the principal (+400 odds) to 95% of the principal (+2000 odds).
Also, sites may not let you get a full $5000 credit on a +2000 odds bet. And oddsjam may not have much data on which +2000 longshots are good value relative to other books bc so few sites would offer bets on that event (or parlay) that you could compare apples to apples
Oh and you definitely would want to make a bunch of small bets. You just can’t do that the way the promo is structured on any place except barstool and betmgm. Takes a bit more time to hunt around for a bunch of bets, so up to you