Ah good to know, thanks!
Joseph B.
Karma: 20
Quick, High-EV Advantage Sportsbetting Opportunity in 18 US States
Thanks so much!
Thank you for the thoughtful answer! My parents are based in the US and their investments are all in index funds and ETFs. I had forgotten that index funds in DAFs aren’t subject to portfolio turnover capital gains taxes, which seems like that would be the reason it’s worth switching the appreciated stocks to DAFs.
I think my parents’ idea is that by having the money they expect to be able to donate in a DAF or other investment account instead of just giving it now, they protect themself from a horrible health shock or market crash by having the money available to withdraw. Their ideal situation would be “pay as little tax and management fees on their investments as possible, donate in the most taxed-advantage way possible, probably giving more and more as they got older and were more sure they won’t need a big safety net”
Given this as what they’re optimizing for, do you think biting the bullet on the ~$5k/year vanguard management fee is their best option?
Yes I believe that’s how it works—if you’ve deposited but not bet yet, you may be able to just deposit more and still be eligible (you’d have to check with customer support). Once you’ve bet, you’re ineligible
Hmm where did you hear that sportsbooks take a higher vig on longer odds bets? I knew this about one-way bets, like the winner of a golf tournament, because you can’t bet on the event not happening so there isn’t an easy way for the lay-bettor to see how much they’re getting ripped off. I’ve seen plenty of arbitrage opportunities on oddsjam for long odds bets—just flagging in case anyone doing handicapping or +EV betting without promos sees this.
Also, I could be wrong so please let me know if there’s something I’m missing!
Also responded over dm while mods were approving this comment. Here’s the answer for public visibility:
That will work, but will only perfectly hedge your bet if the odds on both sides are +100 or greater (very rare). I also recommend hedging with a different sportsbook so as not to appear to be “colluding” against the sportsbook.
An example could be you and your wife each bet on the pacers vs celtics, and spurs vs wizards games tomorrow on each fanduel and draftkings. You could bet on the pacers on Fanduel, and the Spurs on Draftkings, your wife could bet on the Celtics on Draftkings, and the Wizards on Fanduel. That way there aren’t bets on the same game on the same sportsbook across the two accounts.
Lmk if you have any other questions!
Responded over DM when this comment was pending review from admins since it came from a new account, but for public visibility, bets settle as soon as the game ends. So for example, to get the fanduel bonus today, you could bet on basketball games starting at 9pm ET and earlier, but probably not after that.
Oh and you definitely would want to make a bunch of small bets. You just can’t do that the way the promo is structured on any place except barstool and betmgm. Takes a bit more time to hunt around for a bunch of bets, so up to you
Great question. A mix of risk tolerance (for most people) and tax liability (especially for the $5,000 best). Sure you could make a +2000 odds bet, but then you’d have to pay taxes on a $100,000 windfall, and that dominates the marginal gains in bet efficiency between converting a free bet at 80% of the principal (+400 odds) to 95% of the principal (+2000 odds).
Also, sites may not let you get a full $5000 credit on a +2000 odds bet. And oddsjam may not have much data on which +2000 longshots are good value relative to other books bc so few sites would offer bets on that event (or parlay) that you could compare apples to apples
Sure, when you itemize you can write off losses against wins across sportsbooks, meaning that you’re taxes on the net profit you make across all bets. When you take the standard deduction you can only write off losses against wins within a sportsbook. So if you won $10,000 on Fanduel and lost $8,500 on all the other sportsbooks, you’d be taxed on $1,500 of income if you itemize and on $10,000 of income if you take the standard deduction.
Yes! I believe you have to have a US social security number though.
Yes I believe that’s correct.
Huh, a friend let me know that they were able to withdraw the barstool site credit directly to their Paypal. It’s possible something has changed with this