Hmm I’m not sure I understand the inelegance remark, but I do want to distinguish between something like --
welp I considered scientific hypothesis for a while and concluded it was a 10^-9 probability, then light evidence got me to update towards it being 10^-2, then somebody offered an argument and I went down to 10^-8
which, while not technically excluded by the laws of probability, sure seems wild if my beliefs are anything even approximately approaching a martingale -- from a situation like
hmm surely the probability of meeting a new person in any given microsecond is vanishingly low, what are the odds?
I want to be careful to not borrow the credulity from the second case (a situation that is natural, normal, commonplace under most formulations) and apply to the first.
Hmm I’m not sure I understand the inelegance remark, but I do want to distinguish between something like --
which, while not technically excluded by the laws of probability, sure seems wild if my beliefs are anything even approximately approaching a martingale -- from a situation like
I want to be careful to not borrow the credulity from the second case (a situation that is natural, normal, commonplace under most formulations) and apply to the first.