A fallacy that can come out of this dynamic is for someone to notice that the “trend continues” people have been right almost all the time, and the “trend is going to stop soon” people are continuously wrong, and to therefore conclude that the trend will continue forever.
A fallacy that can come out of this dynamic is for someone to notice that the “trend continues” people have been right almost all the time, and the “trend is going to stop soon” people are continuously wrong, and to therefore conclude that the trend will continue forever.
This seems like a pretty unlikely fallacy, but I agree it’s theoretically possible (and ocassionally happens in practice).
The difference between 0 and 1 is significant! And it’s very valuable to figure out when the transition point happens, if you can.