So I agree that humanity might just choose not to reach the stars. It seems unlikely to me that nobody (or nobody with sufficient resources) would want to do this post-AGI, but it’s possible humanity as a whole prevents other people from expanding (eg worries about building independent power centers that might harm the safety of Earth, or spoilt negotiations, or more idiosyncratic factors).
This is not the most likely existential risk imo, but certainly one to be aware of.
That said, the 1960s-70s moon landing was a large net resource loss. Costed ~ half a percentage point of GDP (!) annually for multiple years and didn’t get anything in return other than a few innovations and one-upping the Soviets. Seems like a pretty different story!
So I agree that humanity might just choose not to reach the stars. It seems unlikely to me that nobody (or nobody with sufficient resources) would want to do this post-AGI, but it’s possible humanity as a whole prevents other people from expanding (eg worries about building independent power centers that might harm the safety of Earth, or spoilt negotiations, or more idiosyncratic factors).
This is not the most likely existential risk imo, but certainly one to be aware of.
That said, the 1960s-70s moon landing was a large net resource loss. Costed ~ half a percentage point of GDP (!) annually for multiple years and didn’t get anything in return other than a few innovations and one-upping the Soviets. Seems like a pretty different story!