Markets (and policymakers) have to make decisions all the time. They might not be perfect, but I’m not aware of a better gauge of nuclear risk- or a least a gauge I find more trustworthy. Another interpretation of Buiter’s article is that he’s just wrong.
I think climate change is unlikely to rise to the level of aglobal catastrophic risk. But if it were, it would still leave open the question, what party an individual should enter to most improve the situation.
As I wrote:”I would urge them to think on the margin. The more awesome the Democratic Party is on the issue you care about, the less value you bring by joining that party. If you managed to win a high position in Democratic politics, you’ll simply be displacing a person who might have been almost as good as you. The more odious you think the Republican Party is, the more uplifting your presence will be and the greater value you will contribute by rising within that party. Joining the Republican Party is great idea!”
That said if someone really hates a party, it’s a bad idea to join it in practice, and also quite dishonest. But I think the expected value of an EA entering the GOP is much better than one entering the Democratic Party.
The first part isn’t an argument it’s just a dismissal. You haven’t engaged with anything I’ve said on it. You have to discount expert opinion in favor of market trends in order to hold this position in a context where market trends are particularly suspect.
The second part denies the broad scientific consensus on the threat of climate change. Here’s a quote from the UN on climate change “the UN Secretary-General insisted that unless governments everywhere reassess their energy policies, the world will be uninhabitable.” Do you take the UN to be untrustworthy?
The argument of which party is better to join as an individual cannot be had without the recognition that the GOP being in power is a global catastrophic risk. Otherwise, we risk losing track of what the actual risk factors are.
Separately this assumes the democrats are good on their issues when at best they are painfully mediocre.
Markets (and policymakers) have to make decisions all the time. They might not be perfect, but I’m not aware of a better gauge of nuclear risk- or a least a gauge I find more trustworthy. Another interpretation of Buiter’s article is that he’s just wrong.
I think climate change is unlikely to rise to the level of a global catastrophic risk. But if it were, it would still leave open the question, what party an individual should enter to most improve the situation.
As I wrote:”I would urge them to think on the margin. The more awesome the Democratic Party is on the issue you care about, the less value you bring by joining that party. If you managed to win a high position in Democratic politics, you’ll simply be displacing a person who might have been almost as good as you. The more odious you think the Republican Party is, the more uplifting your presence will be and the greater value you will contribute by rising within that party. Joining the Republican Party is great idea!”
That said if someone really hates a party, it’s a bad idea to join it in practice, and also quite dishonest. But I think the expected value of an EA entering the GOP is much better than one entering the Democratic Party.
The first part isn’t an argument it’s just a dismissal. You haven’t engaged with anything I’ve said on it. You have to discount expert opinion in favor of market trends in order to hold this position in a context where market trends are particularly suspect.
The second part denies the broad scientific consensus on the threat of climate change. Here’s a quote from the UN on climate change “the UN Secretary-General insisted that unless governments everywhere reassess their energy policies, the world will be uninhabitable.” Do you take the UN to be untrustworthy?
https://news.un.org/en/story/2022/04/1115452#:~:text=A%20new%20flagship%20UN%20report,limit%20global%20warming%20to%201.5
The argument of which party is better to join as an individual cannot be had without the recognition that the GOP being in power is a global catastrophic risk. Otherwise, we risk losing track of what the actual risk factors are.
Separately this assumes the democrats are good on their issues when at best they are painfully mediocre.