Fair, but bear in mind that we’re conditioning on your action successfully reducing x-catastrophe. So you know that you’re not in the world where alignment is impossibly difficult.
Instead, you’re in a world where it was possible to make a difference on p(doom) (because you in fact made the difference), but where nonetheless that p(doom) reduction hadn’t happened anyway. I think that’s pretty likely to be a pretty messed up world, because, in the non-messed-up-world, the p(doom) reduction already happens and your action didn’t make a difference.
Fair, but bear in mind that we’re conditioning on your action successfully reducing x-catastrophe. So you know that you’re not in the world where alignment is impossibly difficult.
Instead, you’re in a world where it was possible to make a difference on p(doom) (because you in fact made the difference), but where nonetheless that p(doom) reduction hadn’t happened anyway. I think that’s pretty likely to be a pretty messed up world, because, in the non-messed-up-world, the p(doom) reduction already happens and your action didn’t make a difference.