Forecasts are rather time-intensive—I used to make a bunch of metaculus forecasts, but putting serious effort into researching something, just to come up with a number to toss into the community mix, rarely seems worth the effort these days. Instead, I have a backlog of blog posts and other projects that seem higher expected value. (But going forwards, I should try to contribute forecasts when I find myself already researching something EA-adjacent anyways.)
Related to this, unclear impact—as Nuno judges here, it’s hard for forecasts to really hit the sweet spot of being at the right difficulty level and also being decision-relevant. If I had more of an understanding of who finds forecasts useful, I might be more interested in contributing.
Forecasts are rather time-intensive—I used to make a bunch of metaculus forecasts, but putting serious effort into researching something, just to come up with a number to toss into the community mix, rarely seems worth the effort these days. Instead, I have a backlog of blog posts and other projects that seem higher expected value. (But going forwards, I should try to contribute forecasts when I find myself already researching something EA-adjacent anyways.)
Related to this, unclear impact—as Nuno judges here, it’s hard for forecasts to really hit the sweet spot of being at the right difficulty level and also being decision-relevant. If I had more of an understanding of who finds forecasts useful, I might be more interested in contributing.