I worked for the UK Civil Service and it was hard to push forecasting because:
Making markets is hard
Getting people to care about the numbers if they appear is hard
I think that the social problem of prediction market buy in is a bit harder than people generally think.
Michael story writes about it well here.
https://mwstory.substack.com/p/why-i-generally-dont-recommend-internal
I worked for the UK Civil Service and it was hard to push forecasting because:
Making markets is hard
Getting people to care about the numbers if they appear is hard
I think that the social problem of prediction market buy in is a bit harder than people generally think.
Michael story writes about it well here.
https://mwstory.substack.com/p/why-i-generally-dont-recommend-internal