Thanks for posting this, I strongly upvoted it for these reasons:
It’s concise but a very high information-to-padding ratio, higher than I sometimes find on the forum[1]
IIDM is something I’m interested in, and seeing a high-quality post in this area is very welcome. I think it adds value to this area and brings attention to it on the Forum
The structure of ‘explanation—strength—weakness’ was very clear, in general I thought that the whole post was well structured but this made the post very easy to follow
As for the content of the post itself, I agree with most of it and I look forward to reading the references and links! My only comment for consideration would be, all 4 models seem to have an underlying weakness—that they are actually unlikely to be fully integrated into policy decision-making circles, and that acts as a bottleneck on applying any form on forecasting in the policy realm.
So my questions in that area would be:
Have there been any historical examples where forecasts where explicitly integrated into decision making, either in the public or private sectors? [My assumption is very little of both, and what there has is likely a lot more on the private than public side]
What are the empirical barriers to forecasting being adopted in public policy? Are there case studies of this being attempted and shut down, and in these cases where were the key points leading to a rejection of these models?
Are there any particular constituencies/polities where we might expect forecasting to have more of a foothold—where engagement by the EA IIDM community might lead to actual implementation?
And finally, I just want to end by saying again I thought it was a very good post :)
Thanks for posting this, I strongly upvoted it for these reasons:
It’s concise but a very high information-to-padding ratio, higher than I sometimes find on the forum[1]
IIDM is something I’m interested in, and seeing a high-quality post in this area is very welcome. I think it adds value to this area and brings attention to it on the Forum
The structure of ‘explanation—strength—weakness’ was very clear, in general I thought that the whole post was well structured but this made the post very easy to follow
As for the content of the post itself, I agree with most of it and I look forward to reading the references and links! My only comment for consideration would be, all 4 models seem to have an underlying weakness—that they are actually unlikely to be fully integrated into policy decision-making circles, and that acts as a bottleneck on applying any form on forecasting in the policy realm.
So my questions in that area would be:
Have there been any historical examples where forecasts where explicitly integrated into decision making, either in the public or private sectors? [My assumption is very little of both, and what there has is likely a lot more on the private than public side]
What are the empirical barriers to forecasting being adopted in public policy? Are there case studies of this being attempted and shut down, and in these cases where were the key points leading to a rejection of these models?
Are there any particular constituencies/polities where we might expect forecasting to have more of a foothold—where engagement by the EA IIDM community might lead to actual implementation?
And finally, I just want to end by saying again I thought it was a very good post :)
Especially on my own posts....