[...] In some ways it looks like overkill (e.g. in many x-risk scenarios, independence from the surrounding ecosystem is irrelevant), but in other ways it doesn’t go far enough (e.g. most closed ecosystems require sunlight, which is the system that several x-risks target).
I do think closed ecosystems would offer little or no benefit in many/most x-risk scenarios, and that some people seem to prioritise them a bit too much.
But it also seems like they might be useful for a substantial subset of biorisk scenarios?[1] And biorisk in general seems to account for a substantial chunk of total existential risk (e.g., more than nuclear winter, asteroid/comet impacts, or super volcanoes, which I imagine are the sunlight-targeting risks you had in mind).
Taken together, that seems to suggest closed ecosystems might still be fairly useful (even if not super cost-effective compared to alternative options at the moment), and something a civilization which “has its act together” and is pursuing existential security might want?
[1] I’m not saying closed ecosystems would be either necessary or sufficient to protect civilization from all biorisk scenarios, and it’s possible it’s a bad idea to brainstorm in detail here which biorisk scenarios closed ecosystems might or might not be relevant for.
I do think closed ecosystems would offer little or no benefit in many/most x-risk scenarios, and that some people seem to prioritise them a bit too much.
But it also seems like they might be useful for a substantial subset of biorisk scenarios?[1] And biorisk in general seems to account for a substantial chunk of total existential risk (e.g., more than nuclear winter, asteroid/comet impacts, or super volcanoes, which I imagine are the sunlight-targeting risks you had in mind).
Taken together, that seems to suggest closed ecosystems might still be fairly useful (even if not super cost-effective compared to alternative options at the moment), and something a civilization which “has its act together” and is pursuing existential security might want?
[1] I’m not saying closed ecosystems would be either necessary or sufficient to protect civilization from all biorisk scenarios, and it’s possible it’s a bad idea to brainstorm in detail here which biorisk scenarios closed ecosystems might or might not be relevant for.