It would be interesting if it were possible to disambiguate:
1. Previous forecasters moved up their forecasts to shorter timelines
vs.
2. New forecasters, who have shorter timelines, offered forecasts for the question when they hadn’t forecasted previously
Both are informative, and in a real-money prediction market both are equally informative. But with a forecasting platform, this could “just” be a composition bias?
It would be interesting if it were possible to disambiguate:
1. Previous forecasters moved up their forecasts to shorter timelines
vs.
2. New forecasters, who have shorter timelines, offered forecasts for the question when they hadn’t forecasted previously
Both are informative, and in a real-money prediction market both are equally informative. But with a forecasting platform, this could “just” be a composition bias?
One crude metric: the number of forecasters has gone up 25% in the last month, from n=284 to n=354