6 Year Decrease of Metaculus AGI Prediction

Metaculus now predicts that the first AGI[1] will become publicly known in 2036. This is a massive update − 6 years faster than previous estimates. I expect this update is based on recent papers[2]. It suggests that it is important to be prepared for short timelines, such as by accelerating alignment efforts in so far as this is possible.

  1. ^

    Some people may feel that the criteria listed aren’t quite what is typically meant by AGI and they have a point. At the same time, I expect this is the result of some objective criteria being needed for this kinds of competitions. In any case, if there was an AI that achieved this bar, then the implications of this would surely be immense.

  2. ^

    Here are four papers listed in a recent Less Wrong post by someone anonymous a, b, c, d.