I think of this question mostly in terms of the trajectory I think this nudges us towards. It feels like there’s something of a hierarchy of needs for humanity as a whole, and getting out of the zone where we have extreme poverty feels like the right first step, in a way that makes me feel more optimistic about wise decision processes being able to rise to the top thereafter.
I’m not certain what current spending looks like; that might make me change my mind here. (I think it’s definitely right to start ramping up spending on animal welfare at some point before poverty is entirely eliminated.)
Generally I think that those in richer countries are going to shape the future not those in poorer countries, so I’m not sure I agree with you about “wise decision processes” rising to the top if we end extreme poverty.
For example, if we create AI that causes an existential catastrophe, that is going to be the fault of people in richer countries.
Another example—I am concerned about risks of lock in which could enable mass suffering to persist for a very long time. E.g. we spread to the stars while factory farming is still widespread and so end up spreading factory farming too. Or we create digital sentience while we still don’t really care about non-human sentience and so end up creating vast amounts of digital suffering. I can’t see how ending poverty in lower income countries is going to reduce these risks which, if they happen, will be the fault of those in richer countries. Furthermore, ending factory farming seems important to widen the moral circle and reduce these risks.
I don’t disagree with you that rich countries are likely to have disproportionate influence; but I think that the presence or absence of extreme poverty in the world they’re living in will have more influence on their implicit decision algorithms than you’re suggesting. I think eliminating global poverty would have a significantly bigger effect reducing the risk of AI catastrophe than would eliminating factory farming.
I do think I hadn’t properly considered the impact of potentially-short AI timelines on this question, and that pushes in favour of animals (since there’s more room for value shifts to happen quickly than economic fundamentals to shift quickly).
I’m skeptical of this link between eradicating poverty and reducing AI risk. Generally richer countries’ governments are not very concerned about extreme poverty. To the extent that they are, it is the remit of certain departments like USAID that have little if any link to AI development. If we have an AI catastrophe it is probably going to be the fault of a leading AI lab like OpenAI and/or the relevant regulators or legislators not doing their job well enough. I just don’t see why these actors would do any better just because there is no extreme poverty halfway across the world—as I say, global poverty is way down their priority list if it is on it at all.
This isn’t about the ways they explicitly care and work on global poverty. This is a holistic sense that the existence of extreme poverty in the world is a driver of a feeling of fraughtness, nationalism, and poor decision-making in rich countries (cf. attitudes towards immigration today; and how past eras with more extreme poverty tended to have more war). If we could choose a world without extreme poverty to develop AGI, compared to one with extreme poverty, I wouldn’t be confident, but I definitely would think it was a meaningful edge (enough to bet on). I think the corresponding effects for factory farming are quite a bit weaker (though for sure there are still effects there).
OK thanks for your perspective, although it doesn’t seem convincing to me. I could be more convinced by an argument that inequality / poverty in rich countries results in poor decision-making in those same rich countries.
I think of this question mostly in terms of the trajectory I think this nudges us towards. It feels like there’s something of a hierarchy of needs for humanity as a whole, and getting out of the zone where we have extreme poverty feels like the right first step, in a way that makes me feel more optimistic about wise decision processes being able to rise to the top thereafter.
I’m not certain what current spending looks like; that might make me change my mind here. (I think it’s definitely right to start ramping up spending on animal welfare at some point before poverty is entirely eliminated.)
Generally I think that those in richer countries are going to shape the future not those in poorer countries, so I’m not sure I agree with you about “wise decision processes” rising to the top if we end extreme poverty.
For example, if we create AI that causes an existential catastrophe, that is going to be the fault of people in richer countries.
Another example—I am concerned about risks of lock in which could enable mass suffering to persist for a very long time. E.g. we spread to the stars while factory farming is still widespread and so end up spreading factory farming too. Or we create digital sentience while we still don’t really care about non-human sentience and so end up creating vast amounts of digital suffering. I can’t see how ending poverty in lower income countries is going to reduce these risks which, if they happen, will be the fault of those in richer countries. Furthermore, ending factory farming seems important to widen the moral circle and reduce these risks.
I don’t disagree with you that rich countries are likely to have disproportionate influence; but I think that the presence or absence of extreme poverty in the world they’re living in will have more influence on their implicit decision algorithms than you’re suggesting. I think eliminating global poverty would have a significantly bigger effect reducing the risk of AI catastrophe than would eliminating factory farming.
I do think I hadn’t properly considered the impact of potentially-short AI timelines on this question, and that pushes in favour of animals (since there’s more room for value shifts to happen quickly than economic fundamentals to shift quickly).
I’m skeptical of this link between eradicating poverty and reducing AI risk. Generally richer countries’ governments are not very concerned about extreme poverty. To the extent that they are, it is the remit of certain departments like USAID that have little if any link to AI development. If we have an AI catastrophe it is probably going to be the fault of a leading AI lab like OpenAI and/or the relevant regulators or legislators not doing their job well enough. I just don’t see why these actors would do any better just because there is no extreme poverty halfway across the world—as I say, global poverty is way down their priority list if it is on it at all.
This isn’t about the ways they explicitly care and work on global poverty. This is a holistic sense that the existence of extreme poverty in the world is a driver of a feeling of fraughtness, nationalism, and poor decision-making in rich countries (cf. attitudes towards immigration today; and how past eras with more extreme poverty tended to have more war). If we could choose a world without extreme poverty to develop AGI, compared to one with extreme poverty, I wouldn’t be confident, but I definitely would think it was a meaningful edge (enough to bet on). I think the corresponding effects for factory farming are quite a bit weaker (though for sure there are still effects there).
OK thanks for your perspective, although it doesn’t seem convincing to me. I could be more convinced by an argument that inequality / poverty in rich countries results in poor decision-making in those same rich countries.