Just to make sure Iâm understanding, are you also indicating that the LTFF doesnât write down in advance what sort of proxies youâd want to see from this grant after x amount of time? And that you think the same challenges with doing useful forecasting for your LessWrong work would also apply to that?
These two things (forecasts and proxies) definitely seem related, and both would involve challenges in operationalising things. But they also seem meaningfully different.
Iâd also think that, in evaluating a grant, I might find it useful to partly think in terms of âWhat would I like to see from this grantee x months/âyears from now? What sorts of outputs or outcomes would make me update more in favour of renewing this grantâif thatâs requestedâand making similar grants in future?â
Weâve definitely written informally things like âthis is what would convince me that this grant was a good ideaâ, but we donât have a more formalized process for writing down specific objective operationalizations that we all forecast on.
Just to make sure Iâm understanding, are you also indicating that the LTFF doesnât write down in advance what sort of proxies youâd want to see from this grant after x amount of time? And that you think the same challenges with doing useful forecasting for your LessWrong work would also apply to that?
These two things (forecasts and proxies) definitely seem related, and both would involve challenges in operationalising things. But they also seem meaningfully different.
Iâd also think that, in evaluating a grant, I might find it useful to partly think in terms of âWhat would I like to see from this grantee x months/âyears from now? What sorts of outputs or outcomes would make me update more in favour of renewing this grantâif thatâs requestedâand making similar grants in future?â
Weâve definitely written informally things like âthis is what would convince me that this grant was a good ideaâ, but we donât have a more formalized process for writing down specific objective operationalizations that we all forecast on.