Adam Mastroianni: So you wanna de-bog yourself (“Some problems are like getting a diploma: you work at it for a while, and then you’re done forever. Learning how to ride a bike is a classic diploma problem. But most problems aren’t like that. They’re more like toothbrushing problems: you have to work at them forever until you die. You can’t, as far as I know, just brush your teeth really really well and then let ’em ride forever.”)
Linksammlung zum heutigen Workshop
Themenblock Forecasting
Calibration im Forecasting Wiki
Calibration Exercise
Fatebook Predict your year
Confido for personal forecasting and calibration
One’s Future Behavior as a Domain of Calibration
Metaculus Movers
Anderes
Adam Mastroianni: So you wanna de-bog yourself (“Some problems are like getting a diploma: you work at it for a while, and then you’re done forever. Learning how to ride a bike is a classic diploma problem. But most problems aren’t like that. They’re more like toothbrushing problems: you have to work at them forever until you die. You can’t, as far as I know, just brush your teeth really really well and then let ’em ride forever.”)