Thanks for writing about this, I like seeing more on this topic.
I can imagine if a person has very low priors on how to have the most impact (or many lightly held hypotheses as you put it) that preserving option value would become important. Do you think it is good to advise this to such people on the margin, and do you see any side effects (e.g. at a group level) from doing so?
I agree that option value is important, but I think there’s a trap where preserving option value means never testing one path. I lean toward trying to rapidly and cheaply test multiple paths, while preserving option value.
Thanks for writing about this, I like seeing more on this topic.
I can imagine if a person has very low priors on how to have the most impact (or many lightly held hypotheses as you put it) that preserving option value would become important. Do you think it is good to advise this to such people on the margin, and do you see any side effects (e.g. at a group level) from doing so?
I agree that option value is important, but I think there’s a trap where preserving option value means never testing one path. I lean toward trying to rapidly and cheaply test multiple paths, while preserving option value.