The only scenario where this could happen is if all of these people went completely untreated, which means that no local government would come in at any stage. This scenario is impossible
Can you elaborate why this is impossible, or at least unlikely?
The idea that no (or even few) Sub-Saharan African countres would stand in the gap for their most vulnerable people with HIV, abandoning them to horrendous sickness and death from HIV that would overwhelm their health systems shows lack of insight.
Countries simply can’t afford to leave people with HIV completely high and dry, economically and politcally. HIV medication would be a priority for most African countries—either extra fundng would be allocated or money switched from other funds to HIV treatment. As much as governments aren’t utilitarian, they know the disaster that would ensue if HIV medications were not given and their heallth systems were overwhelmed. AIDS is a horrible condition which lasts a long time and robs individuals and families of their productivity.
Granted care might be far worse. Funding for tests like viral load cold be cut, there might be disastrous medicaion stockouts. Hundreds of thousands or even more could die because of these USAID cuts. Funding for malaria, tuberculosis and other treatments might fall by the wayside but I believe for most countries HIV care would be a top priority.
There would be some countries that are either too poor or unstable where this might not happen. Countrie like South Sudan, DRC, Somalia—but I strongly believe that most countries would provide most people with HIV most of their treatment for free.
Besides this, given it is life saving I would estimate maybe half (uncertain) of peopl ewith HIV would buy their own medication if there was no other option—if the alternative is death their family would pool money to keep them alive.
Another minor point is that I think drug companies would likely hugely drop the cost of medication as well—otherwise they wouldn’t be able to sell much of it.
Can you elaborate why this is impossible, or at least unlikely?
The idea that no (or even few) Sub-Saharan African countres would stand in the gap for their most vulnerable people with HIV, abandoning them to horrendous sickness and death from HIV that would overwhelm their health systems shows lack of insight.
Countries simply can’t afford to leave people with HIV completely high and dry, economically and politcally. HIV medication would be a priority for most African countries—either extra fundng would be allocated or money switched from other funds to HIV treatment. As much as governments aren’t utilitarian, they know the disaster that would ensue if HIV medications were not given and their heallth systems were overwhelmed. AIDS is a horrible condition which lasts a long time and robs individuals and families of their productivity.
Granted care might be far worse. Funding for tests like viral load cold be cut, there might be disastrous medicaion stockouts. Hundreds of thousands or even more could die because of these USAID cuts. Funding for malaria, tuberculosis and other treatments might fall by the wayside but I believe for most countries HIV care would be a top priority.
There would be some countries that are either too poor or unstable where this might not happen. Countrie like South Sudan, DRC, Somalia—but I strongly believe that most countries would provide most people with HIV most of their treatment for free.
Besides this, given it is life saving I would estimate maybe half (uncertain) of peopl ewith HIV would buy their own medication if there was no other option—if the alternative is death their family would pool money to keep them alive.
Another minor point is that I think drug companies would likely hugely drop the cost of medication as well—otherwise they wouldn’t be able to sell much of it.