I’ve been on the forum for maybe 9 months now, and I’ve been intrigued by the idea of “hits based” giving, explained well in this 2016 article by Holden Karnofsky. The idea that “we will sometimes bet on ideas that contradict conventional wisdom, contradict some expert opinion, and have little in the way of clear evidential support.”
1) Is there a database with a list of donations considered “hits based”by Openphil? If not that would be a helpful and transparent way of tracking success on these. I had a quick look through their donations but its not clear which ones are considered “hits based”
2) Are there any donations considered “hits based” since that 2016 post which have clearly turned out really well, i.e. been winners? We might have seen some these hit based donations resolve positively or negatively, although 6 years is a short timeline so most would remain unresolved. Is there any official or unofficial info on that?
I’ve been on the forum for maybe 9 months now, and I’ve been intrigued by the idea of “hits based” giving, explained well in this 2016 article by Holden Karnofsky. The idea that “we will sometimes bet on ideas that contradict conventional wisdom, contradict some expert opinion, and have little in the way of clear evidential support.”
1) Is there a database with a list of donations considered “hits based”by Openphil? If not that would be a helpful and transparent way of tracking success on these. I had a quick look through their donations but its not clear which ones are considered “hits based”
2) Are there any donations considered “hits based” since that 2016 post which have clearly turned out really well, i.e. been winners? We might have seen some these hit based donations resolve positively or negatively, although 6 years is a short timeline so most would remain unresolved. Is there any official or unofficial info on that?
Thanks!