The expected disvalue is really high, especially compared to other longtermist risks, where the per annum probabilities of bad stuff happening is fundamentally low! The worry, I think, is concentrated on how tractable any intervention is, in a context where it’s hard to know the chances of success before the fact, and about as hard to do attribution after.
The expected disvalue is really high, especially compared to other longtermist risks, where the per annum probabilities of bad stuff happening is fundamentally low! The worry, I think, is concentrated on how tractable any intervention is, in a context where it’s hard to know the chances of success before the fact, and about as hard to do attribution after.
Yes, it seems difficult to pin those down. Looking forward to the deeper report!