As another very active user of metaculus recently, who’s come from an EA background, I basically agree with all of the above, except that I don’t think all the users are joking about betting low on the existential questions.
“Indeed, some people have actually joked betting low on the more existential questions since they won’t get a score if we’re all dead (at least, I hope they’re joking)”
I think several of them aren’t joking, they care more about feeling “smart” because they’ve gamed the system than the long-term potential consequences of inaccurate forecasts.
I do, like you, really hope that I’m wrong and they are in fact joking.
As another very active user of metaculus recently, who’s come from an EA background, I basically agree with all of the above, except that I don’t think all the users are joking about betting low on the existential questions.
I find it hard to parse where our disagreement is. Can you point me to what quote you disagree with?
“Indeed, some people have actually joked betting low on the more existential questions since they won’t get a score if we’re all dead (at least, I hope they’re joking)”
I think several of them aren’t joking, they care more about feeling “smart” because they’ve gamed the system than the long-term potential consequences of inaccurate forecasts.
I do, like you, really hope that I’m wrong and they are in fact joking.