Will MacAskill mentioned in this comment that he’d ‘expect that, say, a panel of superforecasters, after being exposed to all the arguments, would be closer to my view than to the median FHI view.’
You’re a good forecaster right? Does it seem right to you that a panel of good forecasters would come to something like Will’s view, rather than the median FHI view?
I’m not sure. I mentioned as a reply to that comment that I was unimpressed with the ability of existing “good” forecasters to think about low-probability and otherwise out-of-distribution problems. My guess is that they’d change their minds if “exposed” to all the arguments, and specifically have views very close to the median FHI view, if “exposed” → reading the existing arguments very carefully and put lots of careful thought into them. However, I think this is a very tough judgement call, and does seem like the type of thing that’d be really bad if we get it wrong!
My beliefs here are also tightly linked to me thinking that the median FHI view is more likely to be correct than Will’s view, and it is a well-known bias that people think their views are more common/correct than they actually are.
Thanks for the answer.
Will MacAskill mentioned in this comment that he’d ‘expect that, say, a panel of superforecasters, after being exposed to all the arguments, would be closer to my view than to the median FHI view.’
You’re a good forecaster right? Does it seem right to you that a panel of good forecasters would come to something like Will’s view, rather than the median FHI view?
I’m not sure. I mentioned as a reply to that comment that I was unimpressed with the ability of existing “good” forecasters to think about low-probability and otherwise out-of-distribution problems. My guess is that they’d change their minds if “exposed” to all the arguments, and specifically have views very close to the median FHI view, if “exposed” → reading the existing arguments very carefully and put lots of careful thought into them. However, I think this is a very tough judgement call, and does seem like the type of thing that’d be really bad if we get it wrong!
My beliefs here are also tightly linked to me thinking that the median FHI view is more likely to be correct than Will’s view, and it is a well-known bias that people think their views are more common/correct than they actually are.