Thanks, this is quite useful. I hadn’t considered the issue of incentives sufficiently before, and the OP and your comment make me put less weight on the Metaculus x-risk forecasts than I did previously.
(Though I didn’t put a lot of absolute weight on them, and I can’t think of any decision or downstream discussion that would be significantly affected by the update on Metaculus.)
Thanks, this is quite useful. I hadn’t considered the issue of incentives sufficiently before, and the OP and your comment make me put less weight on the Metaculus x-risk forecasts than I did previously.
(Though I didn’t put a lot of absolute weight on them, and I can’t think of any decision or downstream discussion that would be significantly affected by the update on Metaculus.)