Sorry, I didn’t mean to imply that biorisk does or doesn’t have “fast timelines” in the same sense as some AI forecasts. I was responding to the point about “if [EA organization] is a good use of funds, why doesn’t OpenPhil fund it?” being answered with the proposition that OpenPhil is not funding much stuff in the present (disbursing 1% of their assets per year, a really small rate even if you are highly patient) because they think they will find better things to fund in the future. That seems like a wrong explanation.
This has good content but I am genuinely confused (partly because this article’s subject is complex and this is after several successive replies).
Your point about timelines seems limited to AI risk. I don’t see the connection to the point about CEPI.
Maybe biorisk has similar “fast timelines” as AI risk—is this what your meaning?
I hesitate to assume this is your meaning, so I write this comment instead. I really just want to understand this thread better.
Sorry, I didn’t mean to imply that biorisk does or doesn’t have “fast timelines” in the same sense as some AI forecasts. I was responding to the point about “if [EA organization] is a good use of funds, why doesn’t OpenPhil fund it?” being answered with the proposition that OpenPhil is not funding much stuff in the present (disbursing 1% of their assets per year, a really small rate even if you are highly patient) because they think they will find better things to fund in the future. That seems like a wrong explanation.