So if there is some technology which makes invading easier than defending or info-sec easier than hacking, it might not change the balance of power much because each actor needs to do both. If offense and defense are complements instead of substitutes then the balance between them isn’t as important.
This seems reasonable to explain many past data points, but it’s not at all reassuring for bioweapons, which is a critical reason to be concerned about offense-defense balance of future technologies, and one where there really is a clear asymmetry. So to the extent that the reasoning for explaining the past is correct, it seems to point to worrying more about AIxBio, rather than be reassured about it,
This seems reasonable to explain many past data points, but it’s not at all reassuring for bioweapons, which is a critical reason to be concerned about offense-defense balance of future technologies, and one where there really is a clear asymmetry. So to the extent that the reasoning for explaining the past is correct, it seems to point to worrying more about AIxBio, rather than be reassured about it,