There’s a lot of debate about the causes of the industrial revolution. Very few commentators point to some technological breakthrough as the cause, so it’s striking that people are inclined to point to a technological breakthrough in AI as the cause of the next growth mode transition. Instead, leading theories point to some resource overhang (‘colonies and coal’), or some innovation or change in institutions (more liberal laws and norms in England, or higher wages incentivising automation) or in culture. So perhaps there’s some novel governance system that could drive a higher growth mode, and that’ll be the decisive thing.
Strongly agree. I think it’s helpful to think about it in terms of the degree to which social and economic structures optimise for growth and innovation. Our modern systems (capitalism, liberal democracy) do reward innovation—and maybe that’s what caused the growth mode change—but we’re far away from strongly optimising for it. We care about lots of other things, and whenever there are constraints, we don’t sacrifice everything on the altar of productivity / growth / innovation. And, while you can make money by innovating, the incentive is more about innovations that are marketable in the near term, rather than maximising long-term technological progress. (Compare e.g. an app that lets you book taxis in a more convenient way vs. foundational neuroscience research.)
So, a growth mode could be triggered by any social change (culture, governance, or something else) resulting in significantly stronger optimisation pressures for long-term innovation.
That said, I don’t really see concrete ways in which this could happen and current trends do not seem to point in this direction. (I’m also not saying this would necessarily be a good thing.)
One thing that moves me towards placing a lot of importance on culture and institutions: We’ve actually had the technology and knowledge to produce greater-than-human intelligence for thousands of years, via selective breeding programs. But it’s never happened, because of taboos and incentives not working out.
Strongly agree. I think it’s helpful to think about it in terms of the degree to which social and economic structures optimise for growth and innovation. Our modern systems (capitalism, liberal democracy) do reward innovation—and maybe that’s what caused the growth mode change—but we’re far away from strongly optimising for it. We care about lots of other things, and whenever there are constraints, we don’t sacrifice everything on the altar of productivity / growth / innovation. And, while you can make money by innovating, the incentive is more about innovations that are marketable in the near term, rather than maximising long-term technological progress. (Compare e.g. an app that lets you book taxis in a more convenient way vs. foundational neuroscience research.)
So, a growth mode could be triggered by any social change (culture, governance, or something else) resulting in significantly stronger optimisation pressures for long-term innovation.
That said, I don’t really see concrete ways in which this could happen and current trends do not seem to point in this direction. (I’m also not saying this would necessarily be a good thing.)
One thing that moves me towards placing a lot of importance on culture and institutions: We’ve actually had the technology and knowledge to produce greater-than-human intelligence for thousands of years, via selective breeding programs. But it’s never happened, because of taboos and incentives not working out.
People didn’t quite have the relevant knowledge, since they didn’t have sound plant and animal breeding programs or predictions of inheritance.