Understanding of nuclear winter laid bare the lose-lose nature of the nuclear arms race: even if one power were able to perform a magically effective first strike to eliminate all of the enemy’s weapons, that power would still find itself with a starving population.
I think I agree with the spirit of this sentence. But my impression is that, while we should take the risk of nuclear winter quite seriously, there isn’t expert consensus around nuclear winter. So it’s more like understanding of nuclear winter laid bare the potentially lose-lose nature of the race, and that a power that launched a large-scale nuclear strike might find itself with a starving population. (Again, this could still be a really big deal in expectation—but that doesn’t mean we should imply that this is settled, certain science.)
This issue is explored further in this post from Rethink Priorities.
(I’ve just started working for Rethink Priorities and will later contribute to their work on nuclear risks, but this comment is just my personal impression, and I haven’t yet looked into these topics in depth.)
Fair enough. It would be really great to have better research on this incredibly important question.
Though given the level of uncertainty, it seems like launching an all-out (even if successful) first strike is at least (say) 50% likely to collapse your own civilization, and that alone should be enough.
I think I agree with the spirit of this sentence. But my impression is that, while we should take the risk of nuclear winter quite seriously, there isn’t expert consensus around nuclear winter. So it’s more like understanding of nuclear winter laid bare the potentially lose-lose nature of the race, and that a power that launched a large-scale nuclear strike might find itself with a starving population. (Again, this could still be a really big deal in expectation—but that doesn’t mean we should imply that this is settled, certain science.)
This issue is explored further in this post from Rethink Priorities.
(I’ve just started working for Rethink Priorities and will later contribute to their work on nuclear risks, but this comment is just my personal impression, and I haven’t yet looked into these topics in depth.)
Fair enough. It would be really great to have better research on this incredibly important question.
Though given the level of uncertainty, it seems like launching an all-out (even if successful) first strike is at least (say) 50% likely to collapse your own civilization, and that alone should be enough.