I think you’re assuming that those converts stay veg*n, which seems moderately unlikely. I don’t doubt that you are accurately reflecting your experience, but I do think you haven’t seen the long-term effects.
Given that Gallup polls have consistently shown 4-6% of US folks were vegetarian over the last 30 years, I think that approximate maintenance is more plausible than strong exponential growth.
Funny diversion, if you really think that a vegan will make 5 converts over their lifetime (who will do the same etc), then we are only 3 generations away from complete veganism (1% → 5% → 25% → 100%). So the value of a marginal vegan matters less for their multiplier effect, since we’ll be fully saturated in 3 generations anyways. The direct impact still matters, of course.
Right—the assumption here is that only a small minority of vegans (<10%) are currently committed and vocal enough to be actively convincing their friends and family. Like you said, the high recidivism rate has to be currently being counterbalanced by opposite forces to keep the population of vegans steady (which is more or less what we’ve observed over recent decades). And from conversations with other committed vegans, I think a big chunk of that “maintenance” is being accomplished by the persuasive efforts of committed vegans—which all EAs have the power to become!
I think you’re assuming that those converts stay veg*n, which seems moderately unlikely. I don’t doubt that you are accurately reflecting your experience, but I do think you haven’t seen the long-term effects.
This article claims around 82% of veg*ns eventually lapse, which means a 5X conversion rate is actually only enough to keep the movement steady. https://faunalytics.org/a-summary-of-faunalytics-study-of-current-and-former-vegetarians-and-vegans/
Given that Gallup polls have consistently shown 4-6% of US folks were vegetarian over the last 30 years, I think that approximate maintenance is more plausible than strong exponential growth.
Funny diversion, if you really think that a vegan will make 5 converts over their lifetime (who will do the same etc), then we are only 3 generations away from complete veganism (1% → 5% → 25% → 100%). So the value of a marginal vegan matters less for their multiplier effect, since we’ll be fully saturated in 3 generations anyways. The direct impact still matters, of course.
Right—the assumption here is that only a small minority of vegans (<10%) are currently committed and vocal enough to be actively convincing their friends and family. Like you said, the high recidivism rate has to be currently being counterbalanced by opposite forces to keep the population of vegans steady (which is more or less what we’ve observed over recent decades). And from conversations with other committed vegans, I think a big chunk of that “maintenance” is being accomplished by the persuasive efforts of committed vegans—which all EAs have the power to become!