I wonder how much you’d consider “changing governance culture” as part of the potential impact, e.g. I hope that Metaculus and co. will stay clear success stories and motivate government institutions to adopt and make probabilistic and evaluable predictions for important projects
I’m fairly skeptical about this for e.g., national governments. For the US government in particular, the base rate seems low; people were trying to do things like this since at least 1964 and mostly failing.
I’m fairly skeptical about this for e.g., national governments. For the US government in particular, the base rate seems low; people were trying to do things like this since at least 1964 and mostly failing.