You’re right. His critique is mostly about the decision cutoff rule, and assumes that Givewell has accurately measured the point estimate, given the data. On the other hand, the url you provided shows that taking into account uncertainty can cause the point estimate to shift.
Ah, another article. It seems
uncertainty analysis is getting more traction: https://www.metacausal.com/givewells-uncertainty-problem/
But am I reading right that that one doesn’t push through to a concrete demonstration of impacts on expected values of interventions?
You’re right. His critique is mostly about the decision cutoff rule, and assumes that Givewell has accurately measured the point estimate, given the data. On the other hand, the url you provided shows that taking into account uncertainty can cause the point estimate to shift.