You list as a misconception that āLongtermists have to predict the futureā. I think what you intend to say is a valuable point, but that your current phrasing is a bit off. I think what you really mean is something like that itās a misconception that āLongtermists have to make very precise predictions about the far futureā.
I agree with this point, and think itās important:
Therefore whilst it is true that a claim has to be made about the far future, namely that we are unlikely to ever properly recover from existential catastrophes, this claim seems less strong than a claim that some particular event will happen in the far future.
But longtermists still do need to predict the futureāin particular, the case for the most popular longtermist interventions require:
predicting events like existential risks or trajectory changes in the coming years, decades, or centuries
predicting that those events would cause the world to be ālocked-inā to a particular state/ātrend, or something like that
Predicting the future is also necessary to make the case for neartermist/āshortermist interventions, but that tends to require predicting things that are closer to the present and for which we have more precedents/ādata to go on.
You list as a misconception that āLongtermists have to predict the futureā. I think what you intend to say is a valuable point, but that your current phrasing is a bit off. I think what you really mean is something like that itās a misconception that āLongtermists have to make very precise predictions about the far futureā.
I agree with this point, and think itās important:
But longtermists still do need to predict the futureāin particular, the case for the most popular longtermist interventions require:
predicting events like existential risks or trajectory changes in the coming years, decades, or centuries
predicting that those events would cause the world to be ālocked-inā to a particular state/ātrend, or something like that
Predicting the future is also necessary to make the case for neartermist/āshortermist interventions, but that tends to require predicting things that are closer to the present and for which we have more precedents/ādata to go on.