Interesting—that’s fairly similar to the counterarguments I gave for the same case here:
I think all of [the three key criteria Greaves proposes for a case to involve complex cluelessness] actually appl[y] to the old lady case, just very speculatively. One reason to think [the first criterion applies] is that the old lady and/or anyone witnessing your kind act and/or anyone who’s told about it could see altruism, kindness, community spirit, etc. as more of the norm than they previously did, and be inspired to act similarly themselves. When they act similarly themselves, this further spreads that norm. We could tell a story about how that ripples out further and further and creates huge amount of additional value over time.
Importantly, there isn’t a “precise counterpart, precisely as plausible as the original”, for this story. That’d have to be something like people seeing this act therefore thinking unkindness, bullying, etc. are more the norm that they previously thought they were, which is clearly less plausible.
One reason to think [the second criterion applies] for the old lady case could jump off from that story; maybe your actions sparks ripples of kindness, altruism, etc., which leads to more people donating to GiveWell type charities, which (perhaps) leads to increased population (via reduced mortality), which (perhaps) leads to increased x-risk (e.g., via climate change or more rapid technological development), which eventually causes huge amounts of disvalue.
Interesting—that’s fairly similar to the counterarguments I gave for the same case here: