I think simple cluelessness is a subjective state.
I havenāt read the relevant papers since last year, but I think I recall the idea being not just that we currently donāt have a sense of what the long-term effects of an action are, but also that we basically canāt gain information about that. In line with that memory of mine, Greaves writes here that the long-term effects of short-termist interventions are āutterly unpredictableāāa much stronger claim that just that we currently have no real prediction.
I havenāt read the relevant papers since last year, but I think I recall the idea being not just that we currently donāt have a sense of what the long-term effects of an action are, but also that we basically canāt gain information about that. In line with that memory of mine, Greaves writes here that the long-term effects of short-termist interventions are āutterly unpredictableāāa much stronger claim that just that we currently have no real prediction.
(And I think that that idea is very problematic, as discussed elsewhere in this thread..)